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Fri. 2/3/12, day 34 with 332 days left in 2012
Quotes below as of 10:00 AM (EDT)

Long Bond Yield : 3.14% - 10-year T Note : 1.92%
Freddie Mac 10 day delivery rate : 3.23%

30Y/Fannie yield spread : 19 BP
10Y/Fannie yield spread : 131 BP

30-Day moving average for delivery rate: 3.31%
10-Day Delivery rate a month ago : 3.41%
10-Day Delivery rate a year ago today: 4.58%

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“The economy will not recover without a housing market recovery.” 2/2/12-Ben Bernanke in testimony before Congress

Well, sooner or later there was bound to be a more positive employment report and that it would impact home loan rates as a consequence. The stunning response to the release of the employment report this morning is likely going to give way to the realities of the economic condition in our opinion. The 8.3% unemployment rate looks good. It is the lowest unemployment rate since before Obama took office.

Net new job creation exceeded expectations; average hourly earnings rose in line with expectations and the average workweek was nominally better than expectations. Factory orders came in lower than expected and the ISM’s service sector index came in better than expected. We will elaborate on these releases in today’s daily newsletter.

The delivery rate (DR) opened the trading session at 3.23% at 8:30 AM EST, which was a paltry 7 BP higher than yesterday’s close. It has not budged since the opening. What is really driving the mortgage-backed securities market, which is what drives the DR, and where are they likely to head from here? You can either read about it this morning in our Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2012, or wait until after the fact to find out, so… Stay tuned.

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