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Wed. 8/27/08, day 240 with 126 days left in 2008
Quotes below as of 10:00 AM (EDT)

Long Bond Yield : 4.42% - 10-year T Note : 3.81%
Fannie Mae 10 day delivery rate : 6.10%

30Y/Fannie yield spread : 170 BP
10Y/Fannie yield spread : 231 BP

30-Day moving average for delivery rate: 6.23%
10-Day Delivery rate a month ago : 6.26%
10-Day Delivery rate a year ago today: 6.37%

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Good Morning Lenders. The text that follows is only a partial 'thumbnail' of what appears in our publication Daily Economic Insights." Please see instructions below if you would like to see some free samples.

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The casual observer looking at what is happing in the credit markets this morning would surely be confused by what they are seeing. The prices of Treasuries are down materially and yet the prices of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are up and as a result the delivery rate is down. Why? That will be the focus of Topic A in today’s Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2008.

Prices in the credit markets (not including MBS) fell this morning on the news that orders for durable goods (stuff supposed to last three years or more by design) unexpected rose by 1.3% when the “experts” were calling for no change. The initially reported rise of 0.8% for June durable goods orders was revised to up 1.3% and this was spawning a bit of irrational exuberance, but the stock markets got over that very quickly. We’ll explore the subtleties of this release in today’s daily newsletter.

This morning’s delivery rate is 2 ‘ticks’ lower than where it was this time yesterday morning and 1 ‘tick’ higher than yesterday’s closing level. This is not the magnitude of change that would induce any noticeable movement on the rate sheets of wholesale lenders. Where is the delivery rate (and the credit markets) likely to head from here? You can either read about it this morning in our Daily Edition of Economic Insights 2008, or wait until after the fact to find out, so… Stay tuned.

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